Covidsim pandemic analysis tool updated to allow vaccine impact projections

• Online global COVID-19 tool allowing multi-scenario planning for vaccine introduction
• Methodology cited by World Health Organisation, New York’s Governor Cuomo and Dr Fauci

LONDON, UK – Bio Nano Consulting’s parent company AquAffirm and Imperial College London have announced an update to their covidsim.org platform that will incorporate projections of vaccine impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

An online interactive epidemiological analysis tool, covidsim is designed to help governments and other public health organisations across the world plan their COVID-19 responses. covidsim allows users to compare different pandemic scenarios and evaluate possible epidemic trajectories across multiple countries, providing invaluable data for both government officials, healthcare providers and more.

With the addition of vaccine impact projections, users will soon be able to explore the impact of prioritising different target groups and understand the impact of different vaccines, rates of vaccination and supply constraints. Importantly, the tool can be used to evaluate how ongoing social restrictions can be eased as vaccine coverage increases.

Already part of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) global COVID-19 response, the methodology underlying covidsim is being used to support related resource allocation worldwide and have been referenced by both Dr Anthony Fauci, chief medial advisor to the Biden administration and Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York State

The model utilises weekly updates on the number of COVID-19 deaths in each country, compiled by the COVID-19 Data Repository at John Hopkins University. This is combined with local demographic data based on UN World Population projections and estimates of healthcare worker and at-risk populations. The methodology creates a real-time analysis tool that allows users to make projections of the prevalence of COVID-19 infections each day and the expected number of people requiring hospitalisation and critical care facilities.

Already by using covidsim, the relative benefits of different scenarios can be compared against different criteria and variables including health system capacity (maximum number of beds and critical care beds needed compared to those available), the peak of the epidemic, and the total projected deaths; this allows countries to plan for surges and evaluate different trajectories.

Professor Azra Ghani, Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London, said “Vaccines are clearly going to be critical in ensuring that the most vulnerable in all parts of the world are protected from COVID-19 and that, in tandem, countries can begin to return to a more normal way of life. By developing a tool that can be used with minimal user-training, we hope that this will enable those involved with planning their local response to understand how to best use the vaccine doses that they have available to protect public health alongside reducing social restrictions.”

Dr David Sarphie, CEO of Bio Nano Consulting, AquAffirm’s consultancy division, added, “With over 50,000 users already, the covidsim platform has proven useful in helping low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and international organisations forge their COVID-19 response policies. With the incorporation of vaccine impact projections in this new version, potential uses of the tool will increase still further, enabling covidsim to benefit even more sectors of society working towards a post-COVID world.”

About the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MRC GIDA)

MRC GIDA is an international resource and centre of excellence for research and capacity building on the epidemiological analysis and modelling of infectious diseases.  The Centre undertakes applied collaborative work with national and international agencies to provide response to emerging threats with real-time analysis and predictive modelling, and timely evidence-based input to urgent policy questions for major endemic diseases.  The Centre is the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling.

About AquAffirm

AquAffirm is a London-based product development company commercialising technologies to address global biomedical and environmental issues. Offering both hardware and digital solutions, the company is focused on tackling some of the world’s most intractable problems. With a world class board comprising a PowderJect co-founder (Dr David Sarphie, CEO), a co-inventor of the blood glucose test (Prof Tony Cass FRSC of Imperial College), a world-renowned microwave engineer and physicist (Prof Gabriel Aeppli FRS of ETH in Switzerland) and an internationally-recognised former director of large UK laboratories (Prof John Wood FREng), AquAffirm is a leader in developing advanced technology solutions.

About Bio Nano Consulting

Bio Nano Consulting (BNC) is a best-in-class technology and strategic consultancy focusing at the interface between bio-, nano- and digital technologies, providing project management, product development and strategic consultancy to a range of international clients from industry, academia and government. BNC is a wholly owned subsidiary of AquAffirm Ltd.